Independence at 51% (Find Out Now poll)

Date: 9 December 2022 (Updated: 10 December 2022)


Yes 51%, No 43%, Don’t Know 6%


It’s fantastic to see it confirmed, that the Supreme Court ruling has crystallised majority support for independence. Mainstream unionism was based on the fiction of a voluntary union of equals. This has been exposed as another Better Together lie. We’re not happy that the only thing preventing Scottish independence is the UK’s fear of democracy.

In 2020-21, we had almost a year of Yes polling ahead. A sense of inevitability helped bring forward and cement the support of long term demographic shifts.

The thing that ruined our previous lead was the association with a disgraced former First Minister, during an inquiry. To maintain our lead and deliver independence, it’s vital that the mainstream Yes movement is inclusive. We must reject anti LGBT bigotry, reject sex pests, and reject apologists for these sins. The fact that the Tories and Labour court transphobia is no excuse not to do better. It’s fantastic that Conversion Therapy (torture) will be banned next year.


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Media coverage

There is an exclusive article in The National.

Non-partisan poll tracker and analyst What Scotland Thinks has been updated to include this poll. Similarly, the poll has been recognised by Ballot Box Scotland.

Polling information

Polling was performed by Find Out Now, between 1 and 8 December 2022 (inclusive). The poll is of 1 094 adults (age 18+) resident in Scotland, and is statistically representative thanks to oversampling. The main question asked was:

If there was a legal referendum tomorrow with the question “Should Scotland be an independent country?”, how would you vote?

Participants were also asked their likelihood to vote. Turnout adjustment was performed by Electoral Calculus.

Both Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are members of the British Polling Council.

Polling tables are available: